Brand Modi stands diminished: BJP Faces Uphill Battle after disappointing results

After the first round of voting, it was evident that the BJP was in trouble. The BJP workers were overconfident about their electoral prospects. They hoped that the INDI Alliance would not be able to affect the BJP’s electoral prospects. The low turnout in the first round made it clear to Modi and opposition parties that people are not coming in large numbers to vote for BJP. It is important to note that economically better-off sections of Indian society mostly support the BJP, but they don’t turn up on voting day. While the voters belonging to the Muslim minorities and economically poorer sections of society cast their votes in large numbers. It simply means that low turnout affects the BJP and its candidates. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, the opposition was divided. Due to the ‘first past the post’ system the BJP was the biggest beneficiary of fractured opposition. 

Spooked by the lack of enthusiasm among the voters, Narendra Modi tried to incite people in the name of religion to counter the dwindling voter turnout and enthuse passion among the voters. He attempted to take political benefit by manipulating India’s communal faultlines and shamelessly indulging in hate-mongering. The sudden change in his political discourse and narrative captured the attention of political observers and the masses. It is important to note that Modi was elected in 2014 as people were fed up with rampant corruption and visionless Congress-led UPA. Masses looked towards the leadership of Modi with the hope that he would change India’s economic fortunes. They hope that Modi would bring foreign direct investment and enable India’s rapid industrialization, generating jobs for burgeoning unemployed youth. Millions of these Modi supporters do not necessarily buy the hate-mongering against Muslims. They want to see India as a developed and prosperous nation. They have no interest in supporting the bullying of Muslims by radical Hindu elements. It is a common sense as well. India has 220 million Muslims, and communal politics by the BJP will increase the chances of riots and communal clashes in India’s major cities, as was seen during the Delhi riots during the CAA protests. The Muslims decided to sabotage Trump’s India visit and indulged in rampant arson and violence to the extent that even Trump could see the rising smoke from his hotel room. 

Whether the Hindu Right Wing likes it or not, without the cooperation of the large minority community, India cannot make economic progress. No Union government can force Muslims to accept any law made by parliament if they, as a community, are not ready to accept that law. So far, the Muslim community stood up against the BJP government as one unit only in the case of CAA, and due to that, the government could not implement the law even four years after passing the law. As the influence and stature of Modi have declined considerably after the outcome of the general elections in 2024, the street protests and dissidence are likely to increase against the Modi government. During Modi’s previous tenures (2014-24), he had no interest in consultation and preparing popular opinion in favor of his policies. He believes in surprising the nation and stunning people with his decision. There is no doubt sometimes this totalitarian approach works and delivers results, but it also backfires as there are no checks on Modi’s decision. Over the years, like all other popular leaders, he is surrounded by sycophants who speak what he wants to hear. In other words, the limited mandate favoring Modi is good for India’s democracy. 

[Mukesh Devrari]