Infrastructure on the LAC and the Future of Sino-Indian Relations

Source - X (formerly twitter)

The long-term impact of rapid infrastructure development at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by the Indian and Chinese governments can only be positive. China started developing infrastructure at the border at breakneck speed long before the Indian government decided to prioritize it. Over the decades, the Indian government has made an implausible argument that building roads closer to LAC is not a sensible idea. The official position was that if India built roads closer to LAC and forgot any other form of modern connectivity, it would benefit the enemy, meaning China, in the event of war or any armed conflict. Our policymakers displayed remarkable short-sightedness.

The Modi govt finally prioritized the construction of roads near LAC, but contrary to popular belief, the present govt also created merely a single-lane road in the arduous Himalayan mountains of Ladakh and large parts of Arunachal Pradesh are still inaccessible. It is too little too late for obvious reasons. Even little rain and small landslides can make the road unusable for military trucks and other heavy vehicles. In most places, two trucks can’t pass each other as single-lane roads are too narrow for them. On the other hand, China has connected Tibet with modern high-speed trains, airports, and high-speed internet networks. India is a few decades behind China but likely to catch up with the rise of the Indian economy and US efforts to encircle China.

Now the question is what will be the long-term impact of rapid infrastructure development at the LAC, particularly in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh? LAC is comparatively less contentious in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. No one knows what will happen in the future, but one can predict certain possibilities and likely scenarios. Though the situation is fluid and totally depends on the calculation of the ultra-nationalist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the ruling regime in India. First, China will likely try to force India to leave territories currently patrolled by the military forces of both countries and have exclusive control over such areas in most places. However, this might lead to military confrontation in certain areas where India might resist the Chinese position. 

It is generally believed that the Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) is better equipped, has far superior equipment, and has access to modern technology to expand its hold and seize those remote territories. Later, both countries will accept de facto control over the territory as an international border, as India would have no other choice. It cannot take back territories nibbled by China. It is important to note that China has never allowed India to put markings at LAC, nor has it permitted us to militarize the borders. India had no choice but to accept all Chinese positions at LAC after the defeat of 1962. It had a deep psychological scar on India’s collective psyche, India was barely freed 15 years back in 1947 after a long British rule. Prime Minister Nehru was devastated, according to China, India lost its leadership in the global South as well.

Second, it is generally blamed that the PLA has indulged in salami slicing and seizing large tracts of land that were traditionally patrolled by the militaries of both countries. It is quite possible that China might decide to use violence to discourage India from building roads closer to LAC. According to various strategic thinkers, the recent clashes in Ladakh are due to the airstrip India recently created for its air force. According to news reports, during the flag meetings of military officers, China asked India not to build roads in the region while it continued to build roads at its side at a rapid pace. For reasons best known to the government, India stopped work for a few days to avoid China’s wrath and then started construction again. There is no doubt that the ruling regime in India will try to hide the aggressive posturing of the PLAs at LAC. The Modi govt needs to safeguard its national security credentials, but aggressive attempts by China to stop India from building border infrastructure might lead to military skirmishes. It is difficult to say that all future skirmishes will be without weapons, as has happened in the past. One fire from any side will open the situation for both parties to use deadly weapons on each other, as soldiers are no saints on either side. 

The third situation is LAC might emerge as an international border in the coming decades. It would be sheer madness for the CCP to believe that it can seize the entire Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh from India without initiating a full-fledged war. China had the opportunity in 1962, but for reasons best known to Mao, the PLA returned to its prewar positions in most of the areas after capturing large swathes of Northeastern India. At that time whole of the Western world was against India due to our closeness with the Soviet regime. Similarly, no Indian should live in a fool’s paradise believing that India would be able to take back the Aksai Chin region from China. It would be a great triumph for India if China accepted LAC as an international border to avoid a direct military confrontation and ease some pressure on itself to confront the United States in the Pacific Ocean and Taiwanese borders. It is possible to predict the behavior of the Modi govt as India is an open democracy where everything is discussed publicly, but it is impossible to predict how China will act.

There is no precedent in history where nation-states have readily accepted or exchanged each other's territorial claims. It is true that nations have fragmented and been divided into pieces, but not without horrendous violence. It is impossible to imagine changes in the de facto borders in our region. There are no easy solutions to bilateral disputes. Now, the next question is who will greatly benefit from all the above scenarios? Will it benefit China or India in the long run or affect both negatively in the long run? Who has more to lose, and who is better positioned to manage the effects of the above-mentioned scenarios?

[Mukesh Devrari]